Sunday, August 11, 2019

Visualizing distributions with scatter plots in matplotlib

Let's say that we want to study the time between the end of a marked point and next serve in a tennis game. After gathering our data, the first thing that we can do is to draw a histogram of the variable that we are interested in:

import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

url = 'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight'
url += '/data/master/tennis-time/serve_times.csv'
event = pd.read_csv(url)

plt.hist(event.seconds_before_next_point, bins=10)
plt.xlabel('Seconds before next serve')
plt.show()


The histogram reveals some interesting aspects of the distribution, indeed we can see that data is slightly skewed to the right and that on average the server takes 20 seconds. However, we couldn't tell how many time the serves happens before 10 seconds or after 35. Of course, one could increase the bins of the histogram, but this would lead to a chart which is not particularly elegant and that might hide some other details.

To have a better understanding of the situation we can draw a scatter plot of the variable we are studying:
import numpy as np
from scipy.stats.kde import gaussian_kde

def distribution_scatter(x, symmetric=True, cmap=None, size=None):
    """
    Plot the distribution of x showing all the points.
    The x axis represents the samples in x
    and the y axis is function of the probability of x
    and random assignment.
    
    Returns the position on the y axis.
    """
    pdf = gaussian_kde(x)
    w = np.random.rand(len(x))
    if symmetric:
        w = w*2-1
    pseudo_y = pdf(x) * w
    if cmap:
        plt.scatter(x, pseudo_y, c=x, cmap=cmap, s=size)
    else:
        plt.scatter(x, pseudo_y, s=size)
    return pseudo_y


In this chart each sample is represented with a point and the spread of the points in the y direction depends on the probability of occurrence. In this case we can easily see that 4 serves happened before 10 seconds and 3 after 35.

Since we're not really interested on the values on y axis but only on the spread, we can remove the axis and add few details on the outliers to enrich the chart:

url = 'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight'
url += '/data/master/tennis-time/serve_times.csv'
event = pd.read_csv(url)

plt.figure(figsize=(7, 11))
title = 'Time in seconds between'
title += '\nend of marked point and next serve'
title += '\nat 2015 French Open'
plt.title(title, loc='left', fontsize=18, color='gray')
py = distribution_scatter(event.seconds_before_next_point, cmap='cool');


cut_h = np.percentile(event.seconds_before_next_point, 98)
outliers = event.seconds_before_next_point> cut_h


ha = {True: 'right', False: 'left'}
for x, y, c in zip(event[outliers].seconds_before_next_point,
                   py[outliers],
                   event[outliers].server):
    plt.text(x, y+.0005, c,
             ha=ha[x<0], va='bottom', fontsize=12)

plt.xlabel('Seconds before next serve', fontsize=15)
plt.gca().spines['left'].set_visible(False)
plt.gca().spines['right'].set_visible(False)
plt.gca().spines['top'].set_visible(False)
plt.yticks([])
plt.xticks(np.arange(5, 41, 5))
plt.xlim([5, 40])
plt.show()


Where to go next:

Friday, June 7, 2019

Exporting Decision Trees in textual format with sklearn

In the past we have covered Decision Trees showing how interpretable these models can be (see the tutorials here). In the previous tutorials we have exported the rules of the models using the function export_graphviz from sklearn and visualized the output of this function in a graphical way with an external tool which is not easy to install in some cases. Luckily, since version 0.21.2, scikit-learn offers the possibility to export Decision Trees in a textual format (I implemented this feature personally ^_^) and in this post we will see an example how of to use this new feature.

Let's train a tree with 2 layers on the famous iris dataset using all the data and print the resulting rules using the brand new function export_text:
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.tree.export import export_text
from sklearn.datasets import load_iris

iris = load_iris()
X = iris['data']
y = ['setosa']*50+['versicolor']*50+['virginica']*50
decision_tree = DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=0, max_depth=2)
decision_tree = decision_tree.fit(X, y)
r = export_text(decision_tree, feature_names=iris['feature_names'])
print(r)
|--- petal width (cm) <= 0.80
|   |--- class: setosa
|--- petal width (cm) >  0.80
|   |--- petal width (cm) <= 1.75
|   |   |--- class: versicolor
|   |--- petal width (cm) >  1.75
|   |   |--- class: virginica
Reading the them we note that if the feature petal width is less or equal than 80mm the samples are always classified as setosa. Otherwise if the petal width is less or equal than 1.75cm they're classified as versicolor or as virginica if the petal width is more than 1.75cm. This model might well suffer from overfitting but tells us some important details of the data. It's easy to note that the petal width is the only feature used, we could even say that the petal width is small for setosa samples, medium for versicolor and large for virginica.

To understand how the rules separate the labels we can also print the number of samples from each class (class weights) on the leaves:
r = export_text(decision_tree, feature_names=iris['feature_names'],
                decimals=0, show_weights=True)
print(r)
|--- petal width (cm) <= 1
|   |--- weights: [50, 0, 0] class: setosa
|--- petal width (cm) >  1
|   |--- petal width (cm) <= 2
|   |   |--- weights: [0, 49, 5] class: versicolor
|   |--- petal width (cm) >  2
|   |   |--- weights: [0, 1, 45] class: virginica
Here we have the number of samples per class among square brackets. Recalling that we have 50 samples per class, we see that all the samples labeled as setosa are correctly modelled by the tree while for 5 virginica and 1 versicolor the model fails to capture the information given by the label.

Check out the documentation of the function export_text to discover all its capabilities here.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Feelings toward immigration of people from other EU Member States in November 2018

In this post we will see a snippet about how to plot a part of the results of the eurobarometer survey released last March. In particular, we will focus on the responses to the following question:
Please tell me whether the following statement evokes a positive or negative feeling for you: Immigration of people from other EU Member States.
The data from the main spreadsheet reporting the results country by country was isolated in a csv file (then uploaded on github) so that it could be easily loaded in Pandas as follows:
import pandas as pd

# github gist
gist = 'https://gist.githubusercontent.com/JustGlowing/'
gist += '2c25b9b153192baf573ce3b744ea6a65/raw/'
gist += '5f3888f7f42caca58b2418ec5822425083b6d559/'
gist += 'immigration_from_EU_eurobarometer_2018.csv'
df = pd.read_csv(gist, index_col=0)
df = df[df.index.map(lambda x: not '\n' in x)]
df.sort_values(by=["Total 'Positive'"], inplace=True)

# from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php
country_names = {'BE' : 'Belgium',
'BG' : 'Bulgaria',
'CZ' : 'Czechia',
'DK' : 'Denmark',
'DE' : 'Germany',
'EE' : 'Estonia',
'IE' : 'Ireland',
'EL' : 'Greece',
'ES' : 'Spain',
'FR' : 'France',
'HR' : 'Croatia',
'IT' : 'Italy',
'CY' : 'Cyprus',
'LV' : 'Latvia',
'LT' : 'Lithuania',
'LU' : 'Luxembourg',
'HU' : 'Hungary',
'MT' : 'Malta',
'NL' : 'Netherlands',
'AT' : 'Austria',
'PL' : 'Poland',
'PT' : 'Portugal',
'RO' : 'Romania',
'SI' : 'Slovenia',
'SK' : 'Slovakia',
'FI' : 'Finland',
'SE' : 'Sweden',
'UK' : 'United Kingdom'}

df.index = df.index.map(country_names.get)
The idea is to create a bar chart with two sides, positive responses on the right and negative on the left. To do this, we can use the function barh and the attribute left can be used to stack the two subsets of responses ("Fairly positive/ negative" and "Very positive/negative"). The xticks also need to be adapted to reflect that the left side of the axis doesn't report values below zero. Here's the snippet:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np

country_idx = range(len(df))

plt.figure(figsize=(11, 14))
plt.barh(country_idx, df['Fairly positive'],
         color='deepskyblue',label='Fairly positive')
plt.barh(country_idx, df['Very positive'], left=df['Fairly positive'],
         color='dodgerblue', label='Very positive')
plt.barh(country_idx, -df['Fairly negative'],
         color='tomato', label='Fairly negative')
plt.barh(country_idx, -df['Very negative'], left=-df['Fairly negative'],
         color='firebrick', label='Very negative')

plt.yticks(country_idx, df.index)
plt.xlim([-100, 100])
plt.xticks(np.arange(-100, 101, 25), np.abs(np.arange(-100, 101, 25)))
plt.ylim([-.5, len(df)-.5])
title = 'Feelings toward immigration of people from\n'
title += 'other EU Member States in November 2018'
plt.title(title)
xlbl = 'negative            <<<       % responses       >>>            positive'
plt.xlabel(xlbl)
plt.legend(loc='lower right')

bbox_props = dict(fc="white", ec="k", lw=2) 
plt.text(-95, 27, 'twitter: @justglowing \nhttps://glowingpython.blogspot.com',
         ha="left", va="center", size=11, bbox=bbox_props)
plt.show()


From the chart we note that the percentage of positive responses per country is mostly above 50% while the negative ones reach 50% only in two cases. We also see that Ireland and Sweden are the countries with the most positive responses, while Czechia (yes, that's Chech Republic :) is the country with most negative responses, though Cypriots also gave a similar number of "Very negative" responses.